Chapter 1: Macroeconomic Conditions and Outlook

Whereas the industrialised countries remained in recovery mode last year, economic development in the emerging markets slowed down markedly. Latin America and Russia actually went into recession, albeit for different reasons. Whereas in previous years the emerging markets were the main drivers behind world economic development, and thereby the slow recovery of the industrialised world, these roles were reversed last year. Good business cycle conditions in the United States and the United Kingdom, together with recovery towards moderate growth in the euro area, had a stabilising influence on the world economy in 2015. This development is in essence expected to continue, allowing countries like the United States and the United Kingdom to slowly change their monetary policy stance and make it less accommodating. The recessions in Latin America and Russia will lose their strength and the smaller East Asian economies will be able to return to somewhat higher growth. All in all, this will allow the world economy to remain in the moderate recovery mode that has been witnessed since 2011.