Health Dynamics Shape Life-Cycle Incomes

This paper empirically investigates the long-run effects of major health improvements on income growth in the United States. To isolate exogenous changes in health, the econometric model uses quasi-experimental variation in cardiovascular disease mortality across states over time. The results show that there is a causal link between health and income per person, and they provide novel evidence that health dynamics shape life-cycle incomes. Compared to previous generations, life-cycle income profiles slope more strongly at the beginning and at the end of work life, such that age becomes a more prominent determinant of income dynamics. The channels for this transformation include better health, higher educational attainment, and changing labor supply.