Working Paper

Financial Policymaking after Crises: Public vs. Private Interests

Orkun Saka, Yuemei Ji, Paul De Grauwe
CESifo, Munich, 2021

CESifo Working Paper No. 9131

We first present a simple model of post-crisis policymaking driven by both public and private interests. Using a novel dataset covering 94 countries between 1973 and 2015, we then establish that financial crises can lead to government interventions in financial markets. Consistent with a public interest channel, we find post-crisis interventions occur only in democratic countries. However, by using a plausibly exogenous setting -i.e., term limits- muting political accountability, we show that democratic leaders who do not have re-election concerns are substantially more likely to intervene in financial markets after crises, in ways that may promote (obstruct) private (public) interests.

Keywords: financial crises, reform reversals, democracies, term-limits, special-interest groups
JEL Classification: G010, G280, P110, P160