Working Paper
Inefficiency in Social Security Trust Funds Forecasts
Kajal Lahiri, Junyan Zhang, Yongchen Zhao
CESifo, Munich, 2021
CESifo Working Paper No. 9415
CESifo, Munich, 2021
CESifo Working Paper No. 9415
We examine forecast accuracy and efficiency of the Social Security Administration’s projections for cost rate, trust fund balance, trust fund ratio made during 1980-2020 with horizons up to 95 years. We find that the reported deterioration in the accuracy of the forecasts during 2010’s has reversed. The level of informational inefficiency was pervasive during 1990-2009, although it shows signs of improvement after 2010.
CESifo Category
Public Finance
Social Protection
Public Finance
Social Protection
Keywords: social security trust funds, long-range solvency forecasts, Nordhaus test, forecast efficiency, fixed-event forecast revisions
JEL Classification: C530, E370, E660, H550, H680