Brave New World
Yes, we have all heard that emerging digital technologies threaten jobs. But what jobs exactly? Where? And to what degree? Can anyone put some numbers on that? As it turns out, that is exactly what Tommaso Ciarli and his team have done for European regions. Using some of the same nifty digital advances they are evaluating, they assessed the effects of 40 emerging technologies on a wide range of occupations. Some, they found out, indeed threaten jobs. Others, however, increase employment. The overall effect, reassuringly, is positive in terms of employment. In the process, they created a novel TechXposure open-access database that dispels all doubts. Now that’s the way you put numbers to something.
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Other Highlighted Papers
The Power of a Female Voice
The gender gap was very much in the news in the past few days, prompted by celebrations of the International Women’s Day. How to close the gap, and, even more, make companies more family-friendly? José García-Louzao and Rubén Pérez-Sanz appear to have found the answer: more female representatives at the companies’ bargaining table. Seems to work in Spain, the country they examined: it ranks far higher than Germany on gender equality at the firm. (Spain could also teach Germany a thing or two on how strikes are regulated so that users of important services are less affected.)
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Terrorism Effects on Stock Markets
All terrorist acts are hideous, period. And yet, not all have the same effects. Take stock markets in the Western hemisphere: according to a new CESifo paper, in which the authors examined 124 terrorist attacks on US or European soil that caused at least five deaths or ten non-fatal casualties between 1994 and 2018, Western stock markets reacted far more negatively to Islamist terror acts than to non-Islamist ones. The ideology behind the terror affects the perception of the detrimental effects of terror—and thereby the detrimental effect of terror itself. Increased media airtime is partly to blame; the larger media presence, in turn, gives rise to more Islamist terror attacks down the road. The problem is clear. What to do about it, less so.
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A Peek at the Eye-Wateringly Rich
Sure, we have heard about the 1%. But what about the 0.01%? Not much is known about that rarefied species. A new CESifo paper lifts the veil, using 30 years of Swiss rich-list data combined with biographical and wealth tax data. Most of the 300 wealthiest individuals and families in Switzerland came to riches through inheritance— only some 40% are self-made, compared to roughly 70% in the US—most are male, managers are a small minority, and foreigners not only make up fully 50% of the super-rich: they also own 60% of top wealth, being on average somewhat wealthier than their Swiss-born peers. This top 0.01% of the wealth distribution owned 16% of Switzerland’s total private net wealth in 2020, a higher concentration than previously assumed. No policy conclusions here, but engrossing reading.
Other CESifo Working Papers
Working Paper Submission Form
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Spectre Rising
Hope for the best but prepare for the worst. That might be the motto for the EU—Germany foremost—and indeed the rest of the world when looking to the coming US presidential election. Foreign trade as a whole, as Clemens Fuest points out, seems to be the main target for a prospective new Trump administration. Never mind that curbing it would be nonsensical, since it would neither reduce the US’s trade deficit nor would it necessarily bring about cheaper and better products for American consumers or industry. It is still what Trump’s administration will likely do if he wins the election. Europe must then prepare. It must place its own economic and military strength at the centre of political action and defend the rules-based international order with partners wherever possible.
More about Clemens Fuest
 Clemens Fuest’s LinkedIn profile
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Holding Altitude
Spring is in the air: German company bosses are slightly more optimistic now than in the three months from November to January. Very slightly, but enough to lift a tiny bit the overall sentiment, given that their assessment of the current situation remained unchanged—i.e., stuck at the lowest level in more than a year. The malaise seems most pronounced in manufacturing, with order books meagre and production cuts galore. From winter blues to spring fever, indeed.
Other Indicators:
Business Climate Index for East Germany Cools Further (February 2023)
Business Climate Index for Germany’s Self-Employed Rises Again (March 2023)
German Export Expectations Rise (February 2023)
ifo Employment Barometer Falls (February 2023
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An AI-powered Series
Over 2024, the Munich Economic Debates will focus on one of the potentially most transformative technologies of our times: artificial intelligence. It suddenly seems to be everywhere and embedded in many things. Should we cheer? Or should we fret? The MEDs will try to shed light on concrete issues such as what risks the unrestricted availability of AI entails, or how we can take these risks into account without limiting AI’s potential, and whether policymakers should establish meaningful frameworks.
The third debate in the series will focus on the kind of research and innovation policy that we would need to put Germany firmly into the global AI map. It will be delivered by Tina Klüver, of the Federal Ministry of Education and Research, on 15 April 2024.
The fourth debate will deal with what how companies can integrate AI into business models in a meaningful way, as well as how Europe can become a world leader in the development of AI. It will be delivered by Nicole Büttner, of Merantix Momentum, on 22 April 2024.
Both events will be held between 18:00 and 19:30h (in German) at the Chamber of Industry and Commerce for Munich and Upper Bavaria, Max-Joseph-Str. 2, Munich, and livestreamed at www.ifo.de/live
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It’s a Wrap
Pillars concluded its mission with flying colours. Its team, which stretched across three continents, delivered solid policy conclusions to guide policymakers, educators, employers and workers through the coming years to ensure inclusive labour markets for Europe—and beyond. Read a summary of its results here.
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Climate Policy Roadmap for the Next EC
The current European Commission has taken great strides towards battling climate change, with its Green Deal and the Fit-for-55 packages. Much has changed since they were conceived, however, putting increased fiscal and economic pressure on the EU member states. What should the climate policy priorities for the next European Commission be? A new EconPol Policy Report identifies such priorities and formulates recommendations for the incoming European administration.
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RICHARD MUSGRAVE VISITING PROFESSORSHIP
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Henrik Kleven (Princeton University) will be the 2024 CESifo-IIPF Richard Musgrave Visiting Professor. He will deliver the Richard Musgrave Lecture in conjunction with the CESifo Area Conference on Public Economics on 21 March 2024.
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Guests
Each month, CESifo and CES host guest researchers from different parts of the world.
Horacio Larreguy, Instituto Tecnológico Autónomo de México (ITAM), is visiting CESifo 14 – 26 Mar 2024
Henrik Kleven, Princeton University, is visiting CESifo 19 – 23 Mar 2024
Dirk Jenter, London School of Economics, is visiting CES 5 – 14 Apr 2024
Kalina Manova, University College London, is visiting CES 5 – 14 Apr 2024
Nicole Stoelinga, Max Planck Institute for Research on Collective Goods, is visiting CESifo 8 – 13 Apr 2024
Andreas Steinmayr, University of Innsbruck, is visiting CES 15 Apr – 31 May 2024
Mike Zabek, Federal Reserve Board, is visiting CES 15 Apr – 14 Jun 2024
Petter Lundborg, Lund University, is visiting CESifo 15 – 20 Apr 2024
Arianna Ornaghi, Hertie School, is visiting CESifo 15 – 26 Apr 2024
Georgios Petropoulos, MIT Massachusetts Institute of Technology, is visiting CESifo 22 – 26 Apr 2024
Sonia Bhalotra, University of Warwick, is visiting CES 24 Apr – 23 May 2024
Christopher Roth, University of Cologne, is visiting CESifo 29 Apr – 4 May 2024
Nathaniel Lane, University of Oxford, is visiting CESifo 1 May – 7 May 2024
Anna Sanktjohanser, Toulouse School of Economics, is visiting CES 5 – 18 May 2024
Germain Gauthier, Bocconi University, is visiting CESifo 6 – 11 May 2024
Marco Castillo, Texas A&M University, is visiting CESifo 13 – 18 May 2024
Ragan Petrie, Texas A&M University, is visiting CESifo 13 – 18 May 2024
Amil Petrin, University of Minnesota, is visiting CES 13 - 27 May 2024
Andrea Lassmann, Johannes Gutenberg-Universität Mainz, is visiting CES 16 May – 5 Jul 2024
More Information
How to Become a Guest
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The Bulletin Board is where CESifo network members can post news and messages that are of interest to the research community and to all CESifo Newsletter readers. If you have anything you would like to share, please feel free to contact us at services@cesifo.de.
BULLETIN BOARD
CALLS FOR APPLICATIONS
The Leibniz Institute for Financial Research SAFE and the Graduate School of Economics, Finance, and Management (GSEFM) at Goethe University Frankfurt invite excellent students to apply to their
PhD programs in Finance and Economics (full-time)
starting in October 2024
Third deadline for applications: 31 May 2024
The GSEFM graduate program offers a quantitative and research-oriented education featuring the structure of premier Anglo-Saxon graduate programs. Together with the Leibniz Institute for Financial Research SAFE, it provides an environment where students can benefit from a unique research group in Finance spanning a wide range of topics, such as banking regulation, systemic risk, asset pricing, corporate, household, behavioral, sustainable and macro finance, data science, and financial law. Students and faculty benefit from the location in Frankfurt, the primary center for financial markets and central banking in continental Europe.
The Ph.D. programs consist of two years of doctoral coursework with a qualifying examination at the end of the first year. Core courses in the first year and two to three elective courses in the second year ensure that students acquire a thorough knowledge of the theory of Economics and Finance before beginning their own research.
SAFE offers funding for the entire program to three excellent applicants for the Ph.D. Program in Finance as well as to those for the Program in Economics who pursue Finance as one field in their studies. The funding includes a scholarship of monthly €1,300 in the first year and an ensuing work contract as research assistant, conditional on passing the preliminary exams.
More information
CONFERENCES AND WORKSHOPS
Paper Development Workshop
TU Dresden, in-person, 5 July 2024
The Paper Development Workshop, organised together with Carol Alexander from University of Sussex and Denis Schweizer from Concordia University, is devoted to Generative AI in Finance. Interested scholars are invited to apply to present and discuss their current research on this topic.
The aim of the workshop is to feature articles at the forefront of Generative AI research across a broad spectrum of interests including, but not limited to, corporate finance, fintech, digital finance, asset pricing, financial stability, banking, risk management, portfolio management, behavioural finance, personal finance, and real estate — all within the context of viable existing or potential future applications of Generative AI.
The workshop is associated with a Special Issue in the Journal of Banking and Finance on Generative AI in Finance and aims to provide authors with valuable insights from the editorial team prior to submission. Acceptance for presentation at the Paper Development Workshop is not a prerequisite for submission to the Special Issue and in no way guarantees acceptance to the Special Issue.
The keynote lecture will be delivered by Michael Weber (University of Chicago, Booth School of Business) on “The Promises and Pitfalls of Large Language Models in Finance”.
Submissions (full articles or extended abstracts, through Registration form)
Deadline: 1 May, 2024
Further info here.
Syracuse-Chicago Webinar Series on Property Tax Administration and Design
Syracuse University and the University of Chicago organize a webinar series that "aims to gather insight and scholarship through domestic and international comparative studies with common threads to help reform and improve property tax administration and design in the U.S. and other countries facing similar problems."
Interested scholars will find the schedule, a registration link and further information here.
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