15 October 2019

Do Immigrants Affect Crime? Evidence from Panel Data for Germany

Countries that accept large numbers of immigrants in a short space of time will see increased rates of criminality – so goes the frequent argument. A recent CESifo Working Paper focuses on the effect the number of immigrants has on the crime rate. The study found that no positive correlation can be established and the authors appeal for a more rational debate on large influxes of refugees.

Key issue

Large flows of immigrants always lead to controversy in the countries they arrive in. One reason is the perception that immigrants are more likely to engage in criminal activity.

In this paper, we examine the relationship between the number of immigrants and crime rates in Germany. To rule out distortions in the results, we reviewed potential causal effects; for instance, immigrants’ location choice might depend on the crime rate. They may choose to settle in locations with a low crime rate, which often goes hand in hand with good labor market conditions. However, they might just as well prefer locations with a high crime rate – because of lower housing prices, for example.

Approach and methodology

Our paper uses district-level data for Germany for the 2003–2016 period. Data on criminal activity comes from the Police Crime Statistics of Germany (PCS) and includes information on offenses reported to the police. Data on immigrants comes from the Statistics of Foreigners (published by Germany’s Federal Statistical Office) and refers to all persons who do not have German citizenship. We consider immigrants in general and subgroups, including naturalized immigrants and immigrants with refugee status.

The panel structure of the data allows us to address various issues, including the possible bias of immigrants’ choice of location.

Key findings and conclusions

Employing different specifications, we conclude that there is no significant positive relationship between immigrants and the total crime rate or crime subcategories. Robustness tests for immigrants – differentiated by gender, age, origin, or refugee status – and for naturalized immigrants confirm these results: we do not find a significant positive relationship between most immigrant groups and subcategories of crime.

We also address the issue of a biased location choice. We find a moderate positive effect of immigrants on drug offenses, but this finding is sensitive to the chosen specification. Overall, there is no evidence that immigrants increase crime.

Given the sometimes emotional media coverage of this topic, especially against the backdrop of the recent large inflow of refugees in Germany, we seek to contribute to a more rational debate.