Nicole Stoelinga

Violence and Democracy

Nicole Stoelinga’s work in progress is entitled: “The state of democracy: fading support amid rising violence”, a joint project with Tuuli Tähtinen. The paper will examine how exposure to violence influences citizens’ perceptions of effectiveness of the government, their support for democracy, and electoral participation. The literature shows that the relationship between violence, political participation and support for democracy is ambiguous. On the one hand, fear of violence can deter participation and lead to political disengagement. Citizens may also believe that democratic governments are less effective at deterring violence. On the other hand, violence can create resistance against the perpetrator. Therefore, state repression and other government-related violence could also increase the demand for democracy.

The researchers provide comprehensive descriptive evidence across several African countries spanning 20 years, suggesting that both violent events and demonstrations are associated with lower satisfaction with democracy. Additionally, exposure to violent events is significantly correlated with lower support for democratic government. However, the focus of the project is on providing evidence on the direction of causality. This is done by exploiting the timing of the Afrobarometer field work and the occurrences of violent events.

Nicole Stoelinga is an applied micro-economist interested in development economics and political economy, with a specific interest in conflict. She is currently a Senior Research Fellow at the Max Planck Institute for Research on Collective Goods. Prior to this, she was a PhD candidate at the European University Institute (EUI) in Florence. As a doctoral student, she was also a visiting scholar at the Political Science and Economics Department at Stanford University.