Working Paper

How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Love the Crisis

Jan Fidrmuc, Ariane Tichit
CESifo, Munich, 2012

CESifo Working Paper No. 3720

We investigate the effects of economic crises on the subsequent economic performance, economic reform, democratization and institutional change. Our analysis is based on a sample of post-communist countries, most of which experienced severe economic crises during the 1990s. We find that the severity of crisis has had a positive impact on the subsequent pace of economic reform, economic growth and, with a delay, on investment and institutional change. Episode of high inflation, moreover, translate into lower subsequent inflation. Crises thus appear to serve as catalysts of reform and institutional change and lead to better long-term economic performance.

CESifo Category
Fiscal Policy, Macroeconomics and Growth
Monetary Policy and International Finance
Keywords: crisis, transition, growth, inflation, reform, institutions
JEL Classification: O110, O470, P270