Working Paper

Central Banking and Crisis Management from the Perspective of Austrian Business Cycle Theory

Gunther Schnabl
CESifo, Munich, 2016

CESifo Working Paper No. 6179

The paper analyses the evolvement and effects of central bank crisis management since the mid 1980s based on a Hayek-Mises-Wicksell overinvestment framework. It is shown that, given that the traditional transmission mechanism between monetary policy and consumer price inflation has collapsed, asymmetric monetary policy crisis management implies a convergence of interest rates towards zero and a gradual expansion of central bank balance sheets. From a Hayek-Mises-Wicksell perspective asymmetric central bank crisis management has contributed to financial market bubbles, decreasing marginal efficiency of investment, increasing income inequality and declining growth dynamics. The economic policy implication is a slow but decisive exit from ultra-expansionary monetary policies.

CESifo Category
Monetary Policy and International Finance
Fiscal Policy, Macroeconomics and Growth
Keywords: Hayek, Mises, Wicksell, monetary overinvestment theory, asymmetric monetary policy, financial crisis, Goodhart's Law, marginal productivity of investment, secular stagnation
JEL Classification: E520, E580, F420, E630