Working Paper

The Cultural Diffusion of the Fertility Transition: Evidence from Internal Migration in 19th Century France

Guillaume Daudin, Raphaël Franck, Hillel Rapoport
CESifo, Munich, 2016

CESifo Working Paper No. 5866

France experienced the demographic transition before richer and more educated countries. This paper offers a novel explanation for this puzzle that emphasizes the diffusion of culture and information through internal migration. It tests how migration affected fertility by building a decennial bilateral migration matrix between French regions for 1861-1911. The identification strategy uses exogenous variation in transportation costs resulting from the construction of railways. The results suggest the convergence towards low birth rates can be explained by the diffusion of low-fertility norms by migrants, especially by migrants to and from Paris.

CESifo Category
Fiscal Policy, Macroeconomics and Growth
Labour Markets
Keywords: fertility, France, demographic transition, migration
JEL Classification: J130, N330, O150