Working Paper

The Brexit as a Forerunner: Monetary Policy, Economic Order and Divergence Forces in the European Union

Sebastian Müller, Gunther Schnabl
CESifo, Munich, 2018

CESifo Working Paper No. 6938

We analyze the effects of the increasingly expansionary monetary policies on the economic order and on the European integration process. We argue that the market orders shaped in postwar Germany and in Margret Thatcher’s United Kingdom have long served as cornerstones for growth, prosperity and social cohesion in Europe. It is shown that the monetary policies of the European Central Bank and the Bank of England have undermined these orders, thereby eroding productivity gains and growth. Combined with negative distribution effects, ultra-loose monetary policies constitute the breeding ground for divergence forces in the European Union as heralded by the Brexit.

CESifo Category
Fiscal Policy, Macroeconomics and Growth
Monetary Policy and International Finance
JEL Classification: B250, E580, E650