Working Paper

Lost in Translation: What do Engel Curves Tell us about the Cost of Living?

Ingvild Almås, Timothy K.M. Beatty, Thomas F. Crossley
CESifo, Munich, 2018

CESifo Working Paper No. 6886

The Hamilton method for estimating CPI bias is simple, intuitive, and has been widely adopted. We show that the method confiates CPI bias with variation in cost-of-living across income levels. Assuming a single price index across the income distribution is inconsistent with the downward sloping Engel curves that are necessary to implement the method. We develop and implement the Translated Engel curve (TEC) method that disentangles genuine CPI bias from differences caused by comparing changes in the cost of living across different income levels - non-homotheticity. The TEC method gives substantially different estimates of CPI bias prior to major reforms to the CPI in 1999 (post-Boskin), but both methods suggest very little CPI bias thereafter.

CESifo Category
Empirical and Theoretical Methods
Fiscal Policy, Macroeconomics and Growth
JEL Classification: C430, C820, D120, D310, E310