Chapter 1: Macroeconomic Conditions and Outlook

After the exceptionally long expansion phase that followed the very unusual Great Recession, global economic momentum slowed noticeably last year. Persistently high debt levels, lingering structural problems, and strong political uncertainties led to a relatively small expansion in physical capital stock, with production bottlenecks starting to emerge at the cyclical peak in 2017. In addition, the more restrictive monetary policy pursued by the US Federal Reserve implies capital outflows and slower growth in some emerging economies.