Working Paper

Labour Markets, Trade and Technological Progress. A Meta-Study

Nikolaos Terzidis, Steven Brakman, Raquel Ortega-Argiles
CESifo, Munich, 2019

CESifo Working Paper No. 7719

Theoretical models, supported by empirical evidence, suggest that technological progress and trade are two essential factors to explain recent labor market developments in many OECD countries; technology can make jobs obsolete, and import competition can drive firms out of business. Both causes are often mentioned in tandem, but their relative contribution is unclear. This meta-analysis disentangles the interplay between technology and trade regarding recent labor market developments. Using a sample of some 623 technology and 1094 trade elasticities from 91 studies, our meta-analysis first reveals that despite small publication selection, technology and trade benefit both wages and employment in a statistically significant and economically meaningful way. Nevertheless, the multivariate meta-regression analysis indicates that this conclusion is conditional on several research dimensions. In the most prominent outcome, we document that the skill-bias impact from technology is concentrated on employment, where high-skilled workers benefit relatively more compared to low-skilled ones. In contrast, trade effects expand over both wages and employment, but mainly benefit high-skilled workers. Taken together, the current analysis sheds light into how globalization favors especially high-skilled workers in industrialized labor markets.

CESifo Category
Labour Markets
Empirical and Theoretical Methods
Keywords: labor market, trade, technological progress, meta-study
JEL Classification: F160, J310, O110