Working Paper

Uncertainty and the Cost of Bank vs. Bond Finance

Christian Grimme
CESifo, Munich, 2019

CESifo Working Paper No. 7456

How does uncertainty affect the costs of raising finance in the bond market and via bank loans? Empirically, this paper finds that heightened uncertainty is accompanied by an increase in corporate bond yields and a decrease in bank lending rates. This finding can be explained with a model that includes costly state verification and a special informational role for banks. To reduce uncertainty, banks acquire additional costly information about borrowers. More information increases the value of the lending relationship and lowers the lending rate. Bond investors demand compensation for the increased risk of firm default.

CESifo Category
Fiscal Policy, Macroeconomics and Growth
Monetary Policy and International Finance
JEL Classification: E320, E430, E440, G210