Deep Dynamics

How do firms adjust their output, inventories, employment and capital in response to demandsideshocks? To understand this, we estimate a reduced-form model using firm-level panel dataand we construct a theoretical model that can match the estimated impulse-response functions.A combination of convex adjustment costs and implementation lags explains input adjustmentvery well. Although inputs adjust slowly, production responds quickly to the demand shock andthis adjustment is explained by a combination of increasing returns and increased utilization ofthe production factors. To avoid stock-outs, firms increase their inventories when demandincreases.