Working Paper

Determinants of Inflation Expectations

Richhild Moessner
CESifo, Munich, 2021

CESifo Working Paper No. 9485

This paper analyses the determinants of short-term inflation expectations based on surveys of professionals, using dynamic cross-country panel estimation for a large number of 34 OECD economies. We find that food consumer price inflation and depreciations of the domestic exchange rate have significant positive effects on professionals’ survey-based inflation expectations. Moreover, core consumer price inflation and the output gap have significant positive effects.

Keywords: inflation expectations, inflation, food prices, exchange rates
JEL Classification: E520, E580