Working Paper

The Economic Impact of Weather and Climate

Richard S. J. Tol
CESifo, Munich, 2021

CESifo Working Paper No. 8946

I propose a new conceptual framework to disentangle the impacts of weather and climate on economic activity and growth: A stochastic frontier model with climate in the production frontier and weather shocks as a source of inefficiency. I test it on a sample of 160 countries over the period 1950-2014. Temperature and rainfall determine production possibilities in both rich and poor countries; positively in cold countries and negatively in hot ones. Weather anomalies reduce inefficiency in rich countries but increase inefficiency in poor and hot countries; and more so in countries with low weather variability. The climate effect is larger that the weather effect.

CESifo Category
Resources and Environment
Energy and Climate Economics
Keywords: climate change, weather shocks, economic growth, stochastic frontier analysis
JEL Classification: D240, O440, O470, Q540