Working Paper

Modelling Persistence and Non-Linearities in the US Treasury 10-Year Bond Yields

Guglielmo Maria Caporale, Luis A. Gil-Alana, OlaOluwa Simon Yaya
CESifo, Munich, 2022

CESifo Working Paper No. 9554

This paper analyses persistence and non-linearities in quarterly and monthly US Treasury 10-year bond yields over the period 1962-2021 using two different fractional integration approaches including Chebyshev polynomials and Fourier functions respectively. The results for both quarterly and monthly data provide evidence of non-linear structures and mean reversion (i.e., of transitory effects of shocks) under the assumption of autocorrelated errors.

CESifo Category
Monetary Policy and International Finance
Empirical and Theoretical Methods
Keywords: non-linearities, Chebyshev polynomials, Fourier functions, persistence, US Treasury, 10-year bond yields
JEL Classification: C220, E430