Working Paper

A Note on Temporary Supply Shocks with Aggregate Demand Inertia

Ricardo J. Caballero, Alp Simsek
CESifo, Munich, 2022

CESifo Working Paper No. 9603

We study optimal monetary policy during temporary supply contractions when aggregate demand has inertia and the central bank is concerned about future constraints on expansionary policy. In this environment, it is optimal to run the economy hot until supply recovers. However, the policy does not remain loose throughout the low-supply phase. Overall, when the initial aggregate demand is low, the goal is to frontload the rate cuts to raise demand in anticipation of the recovery of supply. If inflation also has inertia, the central bank still overheats the economy during the low-supply phase but gradually cools it down over time.

CESifo Category
Fiscal Policy, Macroeconomics and Growth
Monetary Policy and International Finance
Keywords: monetary policy, interest rates, temporary supply shocks, aggregate demand inertia, inflation, divine coincidence, policy frontloading, backward guidance, momentum, output and inflation gaps, the Phillips curve, Covid-19
JEL Classification: E210, E320, E430, E440, E520, G120