Working Paper

Banks’ Portfolio of Government Debt and Sovereign Risk

António Afonso, José Alves, Sofia Monteiro
CESifo, Munich, 2023

CESifo Working Paper No. 10692

We analyze domestic, foreign, and central banks holdings of public debt for 31 countries for the period of 1989-2022, applying panel regressions and quantile analysis. We conclude that an increase in sovereign risk raises the share of domestic banks’ portfolio of public debt and reduces the percentage holdings in the case of central banks. Better sovereign ratings also increase (decrease) the share of commercial (central) banks’ holdings. Furthermore, the effects of an increment in the risk for domestic investors have increased since the 2010 financial crisis.

CESifo Category
Fiscal Policy, Macroeconomics and Growth
Monetary Policy and International Finance
Keywords: banking, sovereign debt, sovereign risk, financial crisis, ratings
JEL Classification: C210, E580, G240, G320, H630.