Working Paper

The Dominant Currency Financing Channel of External Adjustment

Camila Casas, Sergii Meleshchuk, Yannick Timmer
CESifo, Munich, 2023

CESifo Working Paper No. 10514

We propose a new channel through which exchange rates affect trade. Exploiting the heterogeneity in firms’ foreign currency debt maturity structure around a large depreciation in Colombia, we show that debt revaluation compresses imports due to higher delinquencies and interest rates, while exports are unaffected. Natural and financial hedging successfully mute the import contraction. A costly state verification model with dominant currency financing (DCF) and exporting rationalizes these findings. Quantitatively, DCF explains a significant part of external adjustment in addition to the expenditure switching channel. Pricing exports in the dominant vs. producer currency mutes the effect of DCF on trade.

CESifo Category
Monetary Policy and International Finance
Keywords: imports, exports, foreign currency exposure, capital structure, exchange rates, debt revaluation, hedging
JEL Classification: F310, F320, F410, G150, G210, G320