Working Paper

Persistence in UK Historical Data on Life Expectancy

Guglielmo Maria Caporale, Juan Infante, Marta del Rio, Luis A. Gil-Alana
CESifo, Munich, 2023

CESifo Working Paper No. 10287

This paper provides estimates of persistence in historical UK data on life expectancy applying fractional integration methods to both an annual series from 1842 to 2019 and a 5-year average from 1543 to 2019. The results indicate that the former exhibits an upward trend and is persistent but mean reverting; the same holds for the latter, though its degree of persistence is higher. Similar results are obtained for the logged values. On the whole, this evidence suggests that the effects of shocks to the series are transitory though persistent, which is useful information for policy makers whose task is to take appropriate measures to increase life expectancy.

CESifo Category
Resources and Environment
Empirical and Theoretical Methods
Keywords: life expectancy, long memory, fractional integration
JEL Classification: C220, C400, D600