Terrorism and Voting: The Rise of Right-Wing Populism in Germany

We document that right-wing terrorism leads to significant increases in the vote share for the right-wing, populist AfD (Alternative für Deutschland) party in Germany. To identify causal effects, we exploit quasi-random variation between successful and failed attacks across municipalities. Using the SOEP, a longitudinal panel of individuals, we find successful terror leads individuals to prefer the AfD and worry about migration. Political parties — the AfD in particular — adjust their messaging in election manifestos in response to terror. Overall, and in contrast to previous work, we find terrorism is consequential to the rise of right-wing populism in a Western, multi-party democratic system.