Working Paper
Zeitenwende in German-Chinese Trade Relations? Evidence from German Firm
Andreas Baur, Lisandra Flach
CESifo, Munich, 2024
EconPol Policy Brief 57
CESifo, Munich, 2024
EconPol Policy Brief 57
- In February 2024, the ifo Institute conducted a representative firm survey on import relations with China. The survey results suggest significant changes compared to a previous survey conducted immediately before the outbreak of the war in February 2022.
- The share of German manufacturing firms that rely on important inputs from China has fallen from 46 percent in February 2022 to 37 percent in February 2024. Similar declines can be observed in wholesale (2024: 35 percent, 2022: 44 percent) and retail trade (2024: 36 percent, 2022: 43 percent)
- The share of firms that plan to reduce their imports from China has also fallen considerably and is at 38 percent in manufacturing (2022: 45 percent)
- Increasing political uncertainty has become one of the main reasons for plans to reduce imports from China (65 percent), alongside firms’ general diversification efforts (80 percent)