Working Paper

Mean Univariate-GARCH VaR Portfolio Optimization: Actual Portfolio Approach

Vladimir Rankovic, Mikica Drenovak, Branko Uroševic, Ranko Jelic
CESifo, Munich, 2016

CESifo Working Paper No. 5731

In accordance with Basel Capital Accords, the Capital Requirements (CR) for market risk exposure of banks is a nonlinear function of Value-at-Risk (VaR). Importantly, the CR is calculated based on a bank’s actual portfolio, i.e. the portfolio represented by its current holdings. To tackle mean-VaR portfolio optimization within the actual portfolio framework (APF), we propose a novel mean-VaR optimization method where VaR is estimated using a univariate Generalized AutoRegressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (GARCH) volatility model. The optimization was performed by employing a Nondominated Sorting Genetic Algorithm (NSGA-II). On a sample of 40 large US stocks, our procedure provided superior mean-VaR trade-offs compared to those obtained from applying more customary mean-multivariate GARCH and historical VaR models. The results hold true in both low and high volatility samples.

CESifo Category
Empirical and Theoretical Methods
Public Finance
Keywords: portfolio optimization, actual portfolios, value at risk, GARCH, NSGA-II
JEL Classification: C610